One of the opportunities we highlighted early in the year in our 2025 Outlook was a big tax bill that boosted corporate profits, similar to 2017. We never believed it would be as large as the 2017 tax bill’s boost on profits—after all, you can only cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% …
Stocks were relatively flat last week in the face of weak economic data. Services, manufacturing, and job openings all were weak, but the monthly jobs data (more below) was a bright spot. Still, in the face of slowing economic reports, we were impressed stocks were able to hold onto some gains.
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In the end, stocks had a solid gain in the first quarter. The S&P 500 Index climbed 7.5%, including dividends. But it sure wasn’t easy. After being up more than 8% for the year in mid-February, stocks pulled back sharply, due in part to the banking crisis that took place the second week …
Becoming hyper-focused on only one aspect of a problem is pretty much never a good approach. A racecar driver who only focuses on speed and ignores strategy won’t win races, at least not many of them. A carpenter who only hammers in nails won’t build strong structures.
In the midst of a banking crisis that has seen some of the largest U.S. banks collapse nearly overnight and 100-year-old European banks verging on failure, not to mention a volatile bond market and a plunge in crude oil — the Federal Reserve raised rates. While we’d expect stocks to tumble …
