After nine months without a move, the Fed is set to cut interest rates. In the latest Take 5, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the latest CPI data, tariff-driven inflation, rising unemployment claims, and what Fed policy means for markets. With stocks at record highs, they explain why “don’t fight the Fed” may be the key takeaway for investors.
Key Takeaways
- The Fed is poised for its first cut since December 2024, likely 25 bps.
- Inflation is still running hot, with core CPI up 4.2% annualized in August.
- Tariffs are finally showing up in durable goods prices.
- Labor market weakness is showing, with layoffs rising and jobless claims up.
- The markets are still pricing in at least six rate cuts by end of 2026, with rates potentially landing below 3%.